By Zackary Nichols
Courier Staff Reporter
Note: An update with the latest primary results has been added to the end of this post.
After huge wins in the New York Primaries, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are looking towards the general election, but are the primaries over? Can Bernie Sanders stop Hillary? Can Ted Cruz or John Kasich derail the Trump Train?
Tonight we will see the results of five state primaries in Maryland, Delaware, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut for both GOP and Democratic campaigns.
Underdogs on both sides have very similar goals. For Cruz and Kasich, they need to grab as many delegates as possible so that Trump doesn’t hit the magical number of 1237, which would secure him the nomination, and bring the party to contested convention in which the nominee would be selected by the Republican National Committee regardless of the current pledged delegates. Donald Trump currently has 845 delegates going into tonight’s primaries, Cruz has 559 and Kasich has 148.
Recently, in an last-ditch effort to stop Trump, Cruz and Kasich have teamed up. They will divide their efforts throughout certain states. Kasich will Devote his efforts in Oregon and New Mexico, and leave Indiana for Cruz.
Bernie Sanders path to a nomination is very slim, but possible. Hillary Clinton is fast approaching the magical number of 2,383 to secure the nomination at 1,428 delegates to Sander’s 1,153. When you factor in her 518 superdelegates, prominent Democrats who have their own vote in July, her number goes up to 1,946. In order to survive, Sander’s must perform well, enough to deny Clinton 2,383 delegates, and sway enough superdelegates to support him in time for the Democratic National Convention in July.
384 delegates are up for grabs tonight in Democratic contests, with the biggest prize being Pennsylvania with 189 delegates. If Sanders doesn’t do well tonight, his campaign is as good as over.
If Sanders does survive, the California primary on June 7th will become very important. Not only is it by far the biggest delegate prize in the entirely primary with 475 delegates, but Sanders is starting to gain on Clinton in polls, where he currently sits only 6 points behind Clinton in a place where he was once 40 points behind.
The 714 superdelegates have until the Democratic National Convention, July 25th to the 28th, to choose a candidate to vote for. If Sanders survives until then, than their vote will matter a lot.
Just like all of the underdogs are employing similar strategies, the Democratic and Republican front-runners have essentially the same strategy, win delegates and wrap this primary up so that they can focus on the general election. The longer Clinton and Trump stay in the race, the longer they will sustain attacks from other nominees, which can, arguably, be more damaging than attacks from rivals.
At this time, Hillary is beating Trump in general election polls, but as we’ve seen from this primary season, the future is unpredictable.
Who will Independents vote for? Will Sanders Supporters vote for Hillary? Would a Trump nomination end in disaster for the Republican Party? Is Sanders going to upset Clinton? Will Cruz stomp out the flames of Trump? The only things we know for sure is that this election has been completely unpredictable and that anything can happen.
UPDATE:
The front runners saw big wins in last night’s primaries, unimaginatively dubbed “Super Tuesday 4” by the Media.
Donald Trump dominated the Republican playing field, sweeping all five states and gaining 109 delegates.
Trump now sits at 954 delegates to Cruz’s 562 and Kasich’s 153. It’s now mathematically impossible for Cruz or Kasich to clinch the nomination outright by gaining 1,237 delegates. Their only hopes are to deny Trump delegates and the primary to a contested convention.
Hillary Clinton won four out of the five states up for grabs Tuesday night, gaining 193 delegates for a total of 2151, including superdelegates. Bernie Sanders still has a technical mathematical chance, but he’ll need a lot of help from superdelegates. At this point a Clinton nomination seems inevitable.
The questions being asked now are will Sanders supporter vote for Clinton, will they vote for a third party candidate, like the Green Party’s Jill Stein, or would they consider voting for Donald Trump? We’ll have to wait until November to find that out.
What beautiful Prose.
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